Mortgage Watch

By Uncategorized September 4, 2026
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Rate Watch for Friday 9-4-2026

Mortgage Rates have been under steady upward pressure all week, driven almost entirely by the bond market’s reaction to stronger‑than‑expected economic data.\

 Today’s Non‑Farm Payrolls Report (The Big Driver)

The August jobs report blew past expectations, and the bond market reacted immediately.

  • 162,000 jobs added vs 53,000 expected.
  • Unemployment: 4.1% (steady).

This is the strongest monthly job gain since March, and it signals that the labor market is still running hot. Could a Fed rate hike this month be in the cards?  The market thinks so!

Outlook: What Happens Next?

Based on today’s data, the near‑term outlook is clear:

  1. Rates are unlikely to fall before the September Fed meeting.

The jobs report gives the Fed more justification to stay hawkish. Markets now expect a rate hike on September 15–16.

  1. Mortgage rates will stay elevated until inflation cools.

The next major catalysts are:

  • CPI (inflation) next week
  • PPI (producer inflation) next week

If either report comes in hot, rates could push even higher!

 Bottom Line: Mortgage rates moved higher this week because the bond market is reacting to a strong jobs report and rising expectations of a Fed rate hike.

Rates are now sitting near their weekly highs, and the next major data releases (CPI and PPI) will determine whether they stabilize or continue climbing.

 

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SOURCE & AUTHOR | Keith Murphy Branch Manager – Essex Mortgage NMLS #330827 Direct: 714-309-1140 Apply: www.GoTeamMurphy.com

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Tim Morissette, REALTOR®

Tim Morissette, also known in the community as Mr. Foothill Ranch, offers over 48 years of real estate experience which has given him an established reputation and unmatched market knowledge. He is joined by his wife, Michele and sons Matt and Jeff, as they continue to offer personal service with an emphasis on achieving his clients’ real estate goals.  This unique combination of traits has led to his proven track record of referral and repeat business. This can be witnessed by the trust of homeowners in Foothill Ranch where he has sold twice as many homes and represented three times more buyers than the next-leading real estate agent for the last 29 years.

As residents of Foothill Ranch since 1994, Tim and Michele are actively involved in the community by fundraising for Foothill Ranch Library, Make-a-Wish Foundation, Cancer Society, Homes for Habitat, Relay for Life, South County Outreach, and the local church and schools. Tim enjoys sponsoring community-wide garage sales, paper shredding and e-waste recycling event, an Easter egg hunt, & a Meet Santa Event.

Tim and Michele are dedicated to their family of four sons, daughter-in-laws, and grandchildren. As a family, they enjoy many outdoor activities which include camping, spearfishing, mountain climbing and exploring the miles of hiking and equestrian trails in Foothill Ranch and the Whiting Ranch Wilderness Park. Tim and his sons are also avid snowboarders and enjoy mountain biking and lobster diving. Family is a top priority in the Morissette household. They look forward to helping more families achieve their dreams of homeownership.