Mortage Watch

By Uncategorized September 11, 2026
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Rate Watch for Friday 9-11-2026

Mortgage Rates jumped sharply this week, hitting their highest levels in over a year, driven by a combination of inflation shocks, surging oil prices, Middle East conflict headlines, and bond‑market volatility.

Top Headlines Driving Rates:

  1. Inflation Shock: PPI Surges

Wholesale inflation came in much hotter than expected:

  • Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 5.4% year‑over‑year, more than double the       Fed’s target. This triggered an immediate jump in rates as traders priced in more Fed tightening.
  1. Oil Prices Surge to $100/Barrel

Crude oil hit $100 for the first time since July, driven by escalating conflict in the U.S.‑Iran war. Higher oil → higher inflation → higher rates.

  1. Middle East Conflict Keeps Pressure on Bond Yields

Mortgage rates followed the 10‑year Treasury yield higher as geopolitical tensions intensified. Whenever the war flares, yields rise and mortgage rates follow.

  1. Treasury Buyback Program Disappoints Markets

The U.S. Treasury announced a bond buyback program intended to ease yields — but markets expected a larger buyback. The smaller‑than‑expected move pushed yields higher, not lower.

  1. Fed Rate‑Hike Odds Surge

After the inflation data, traders pushed the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 86%. Higher Fed expectations = higher mortgage rates!

Bottom Line:

Rates are now sitting near one‑year highs, and markets remain extremely sensitive to inflation data. Next week rates will be driven by Fed rate decision.

 

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SOURCE & AUTHOR | Keith Murphy Branch Manager – Essex Mortgage NMLS #330827 Direct: 714-309-1140 Apply: www.GoTeamMurphy.com

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About the Author
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Tim Morissette, REALTOR®

Tim Morissette, also known in the community as Mr. Foothill Ranch, offers over 48 years of real estate experience which has given him an established reputation and unmatched market knowledge. He is joined by his wife, Michele and sons Matt and Jeff, as they continue to offer personal service with an emphasis on achieving his clients’ real estate goals.  This unique combination of traits has led to his proven track record of referral and repeat business. This can be witnessed by the trust of homeowners in Foothill Ranch where he has sold twice as many homes and represented three times more buyers than the next-leading real estate agent for the last 29 years.

As residents of Foothill Ranch since 1994, Tim and Michele are actively involved in the community by fundraising for Foothill Ranch Library, Make-a-Wish Foundation, Cancer Society, Homes for Habitat, Relay for Life, South County Outreach, and the local church and schools. Tim enjoys sponsoring community-wide garage sales, paper shredding and e-waste recycling event, an Easter egg hunt, & a Meet Santa Event.

Tim and Michele are dedicated to their family of four sons, daughter-in-laws, and grandchildren. As a family, they enjoy many outdoor activities which include camping, spearfishing, mountain climbing and exploring the miles of hiking and equestrian trails in Foothill Ranch and the Whiting Ranch Wilderness Park. Tim and his sons are also avid snowboarders and enjoy mountain biking and lobster diving. Family is a top priority in the Morissette household. They look forward to helping more families achieve their dreams of homeownership.