Holiday Slumber: Orange County's Housing Market Faces a Slower Holiday Season

Orange County's housing market is heading into its traditionally slowest season, but this year's holiday slowdown could be more pronounced than usual. According to the latest Orange County Housing Report, buyer demand has dropped to its lowest November level since tracking began in 2004, while homes are taking significantly longer to sell.

With mortgage rates remaining above 7%, elevated inventory, and fewer buyers actively searching, the market is entering the holidays with considerable challenges. As Thanksgiving approaches, both inventory and buyer demand are expected to decline, while the pace of home sales remains sluggish.

📊 Inventory Begins Its Holiday Decline

Orange County's active listing inventory decreased by 103 homes over the past two weeks, falling from 4,948 to 4,845 homes, a 2% decline and the largest two-week drop of the year.

Despite the decline, inventory remains 15% higher than last year, when 4,103 homes were available.

However, today's inventory is still approximately 17% below the pre-COVID 2017–2019 average of 5,822 homes.

One of the biggest factors limiting inventory continues to be homeowners holding onto their low fixed-rate mortgages. Through October, 27% fewer homes entered the market compared with the pre-COVID average.

As the holidays approach, fewer homeowners are expected to list their properties, while some unsuccessful sellers will temporarily remove their homes from the market.

Last year, inventory declined by 34% during the holiday season, illustrating just how dramatically available housing can shrink between Thanksgiving and the New Year.

📊 Buyer Demand Drops to Historic Lows

Orange County buyer demand, measured by pending sales over the previous month, dropped from 1,219 to 1,099 pending sales over the past two weeks.

That represents a 10% decline, the largest two-week decrease of the year.

Even more significant, this is the lowest November demand reading since tracking began in 2004.

Compared with last year, when demand stood at 1,487 pending sales, buyer activity is approximately 26% lower.

Mortgage rates continue to play a major role. The latest report places the average mortgage rate at 7.18%, making affordability a significant obstacle for many potential buyers.

Higher borrowing costs, combined with the distractions of the holiday season, are expected to keep buyer activity subdued through the remainder of the year.

For sellers, this means fewer potential buyers competing for available homes and an even greater need for competitive pricing and effective marketing.

📊 How Long Are Homes Taking to Sell?

As buyer demand declined faster than inventory, Orange County's Expected Market Time increased from 122 to 132 days over the past two weeks.

This is the highest November reading since 2008.

Expected Market Time estimates how long it would take to sell all active listings at the current pace of buyer activity.

For comparison, the Expected Market Time was just 83 days last year, demonstrating how much the market has slowed.

The differences between property types remain significant:

• Condos and townhomes: 146 days, compared with 92 days last year.

• Detached homes: 123 days, compared with 77 days last year.

Detached homes continue to sell more quickly than attached properties, but both segments are experiencing substantially longer market times.

The luxury market is also slowing. Homes priced above $2.5 million now have an Expected Market Time of 230 days, compared with 169 days last year.

These figures reinforce the importance of understanding current market conditions before buying or selling.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

The holiday season may offer opportunities for buyers who remain active while others temporarily step away from the market.

With fewer buyers competing for homes, motivated sellers may be more willing to negotiate on price, repairs, closing costs, or other terms.

However, inventory is also expected to decline significantly, meaning buyers may have fewer properties to choose from.

Buyers should carefully evaluate financing options, monthly payments, and long-term goals while remaining prepared to act when the right property becomes available.

For Sellers:

Selling during the holiday season requires a thoughtful strategy.

With buyer demand at historic lows and homes taking longer to sell, accurate pricing, exceptional presentation, and strategic marketing are more important than ever.

Sellers should carefully evaluate recent comparable sales, competing listings, and current buyer expectations before entering the market.

For homeowners who do not need to sell immediately, waiting until the Winter Market begins gaining momentum later in January may be worth considering.

However, sellers who need to move during the holidays can still succeed with the right pricing and marketing strategy.

The key is understanding the competition and positioning the home to stand out among the available listings.

The Bottom Line

Orange County's housing market is entering a prolonged holiday slowdown.

Active inventory has declined to 4,845 homes, buyer demand has fallen to just 1,099 pending sales, and Expected Market Time has climbed to 132 days.

With mortgage rates at 7.18% and fewer buyers actively searching, the housing market is expected to remain slow through the holiday season.

For buyers, this environment may create opportunities to negotiate with motivated sellers.

For sellers, it reinforces the importance of realistic pricing, strong presentation, and a comprehensive marketing plan.

While the market may remain sluggish through early January, the Winter Market traditionally brings renewed activity as buyers and sellers return from the holidays.

Thinking about buying or selling?

Countywide statistics provide valuable insight, but every neighborhood, property type, and price range has its own market dynamics.

Whether you're considering selling during the holidays or preparing for the 2027 housing market, The Tim Morissette Real Estate Group can help you understand local market conditions, evaluate your options, and develop a strategy designed to achieve your real estate goals.

Visit timmorissette.com to learn more.

Source: Steven Thomas, Orange County Housing Report: Holiday Slumber, November 9, 2026.