Mortgage Rates – remain flat since last Friday’s report.  Right now, MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities/Bonds) are following the 10yr Treasury very closely. The 10yr TSY yield of 1.62% has been one of the most important technical levels for 10yr yields in the past month.  After breaking above last week, we had a chance to confirm a break back below yesterday and ended up closing to close for a clear signal.  Overnight weakness emphasizes the challenges facing an easy return back below 1.62%, even if the situation isn’t as gloomy as it was several days ago when the bigger risk was a break above 1.75%.

Recent resilience above doesn’t confirm a friendly reversal back toward lower yields as much as it builds a case for sideways momentum.  Unfortunately, sideways momentum means a healthy mix of stronger and weaker trading days.  Better than where we were, but not as good as we’d like to be!

There are no significant economic reports on tap.  True, PCE inflation was once considered a top tier market mover, but inflation reports have had a muted impact on bonds since the pandemic.  Trade is far more likely to be informed by month/quarter-end rebalancing flows as well as technical’ s.  On that note, if it’s not already clear, 1.62% remains an important battleground.  1.75% is likely a safe from attack today, and a challenge of the 1.50% floor is equally unlikely.

Bottom line: we’re in the process of feeling out a new sideways range near long-term highs, and we’ll have to wait at least until next week to see if the momentum will remain broadly sideways or give way to new directionally move.


Keith Murphy Branch Manager – Essex Mortgage NMLS #330827

Direct: 714-309-1140


About the Author

Tim Morissette, also known in the community as Mr. Foothill Ranch, offers over 46 years of real estate experience which has given him an established reputation and unmatched market knowledge. He is joined by his wife, Michele and sons Matt and Jeff, as they continue to offer personal service with an emphasis on achieving his clients’ real estate goals.  This unique combination of traits has led to his proven track record of referral and repeat business. This can be witnessed by the trust of homeowners in Foothill Ranch where he has sold twice as many homes and represented three times more buyers than the next-leading real estate agent for the last 26 years.

As residents of Foothill Ranch since 1994, Tim and Michele are actively involved in the community by fundraising for Foothill Ranch Library, Make-a-Wish Foundation, Cancer Society, Homes for Habitat, Relay for Life, South County Outreach, and the local church and schools. Tim enjoys sponsoring community-wide garage sales, paper shredding and e-waste recycling event, an Easter egg hunt, & a Meet Santa Event.

Tim and Michele are dedicated to their family of four sons, daughter-in-laws, and grandchildren. As a family, they enjoy many outdoor activities which include camping, spearfishing, mountain climbing and exploring the miles of hiking and equestrian trails in Foothill Ranch and the Whiting Ranch Wilderness Park. Tim and his sons are also avid snowboarders and enjoy mountain biking and lobster diving. Family is a top priority in the Morissette household. They look forward to helping more families achieve their dreams of homeownership.