I’m sitting in the back-yard this morning preparing the weeks Rate Watch and it feels like a Friday morning in Maui! Love this November weather (-:

Mortgage Rates are flat to slightly worse this morning (depending on the product and term) from where we sat last Friday. The bond market was sent into a sell-off Wednesday (see chart below) after CPI hot (inflation!). The market was looking for a .04 increase, which would have been double last month, but instead we got a .06% increase. Until the supply chain repairs itself, we will not likely see much easing here in the near term. What happened was the hot CPI number has investors thinking the FED will have to raise rates soon and perhaps more aggressively. So, while the market has priced in price inflation, this number was way beyond expectations and bonds are sending a strong message to the Fed. The problem is that the yield curve is getting flatter every month and when the FED does raise rates, they run risk of inverting the curve. Each time the yield curve has been inverted, we have been dragged down into recession.

Keith Murphy
Branch Manager – Essex Mortgage NMLS #330827

Direct: 714-309-1140

Team Fax: 866-762-0458

Email: [email protected]




Contact Keith’s Assistant – Saudy Esparza

Direct: 714-600-6523

Email: [email protected]

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About the Author

Tim Morissette, also known in the community as Mr. Foothill Ranch, offers over 46 years of real estate experience which has given him an established reputation and unmatched market knowledge. He is joined by his wife, Michele and sons Matt and Jeff, as they continue to offer personal service with an emphasis on achieving his clients’ real estate goals.  This unique combination of traits has led to his proven track record of referral and repeat business. This can be witnessed by the trust of homeowners in Foothill Ranch where he has sold twice as many homes and represented three times more buyers than the next-leading real estate agent for the last 26 years.

As residents of Foothill Ranch since 1994, Tim and Michele are actively involved in the community by fundraising for Foothill Ranch Library, Make-a-Wish Foundation, Cancer Society, Homes for Habitat, Relay for Life, South County Outreach, and the local church and schools. Tim enjoys sponsoring community-wide garage sales, paper shredding and e-waste recycling event, an Easter egg hunt, & a Meet Santa Event.

Tim and Michele are dedicated to their family of four sons, daughter-in-laws, and grandchildren. As a family, they enjoy many outdoor activities which include camping, spearfishing, mountain climbing and exploring the miles of hiking and equestrian trails in Foothill Ranch and the Whiting Ranch Wilderness Park. Tim and his sons are also avid snowboarders and enjoy mountain biking and lobster diving. Family is a top priority in the Morissette household. They look forward to helping more families achieve their dreams of homeownership.