Mortgage Watch Report

Mortgage Rates have improved significantly in the last 24 hours! Here is a puzzler! Yesterday morning the bond market sold off (bond prices falling = rates rising) due to THE ADP report that showed 85,000 MORE JOBS created in Dec that estimated + new unemployment claims DROPPED by 20,000. This tells market that Fed will need to tighten more and for longer, therefore, MBS was down -34 bps on the day.

Today, MBS has made up all those losses and added +83 bps of gains based on the release of today’s stronger than expected non-farm payrolls at 223K vs forecast of 200K. In addition, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% vs forecast of 3.7%. Like yesterday’s ADP read, these numbers show resilience in the economy and will make the Fed’s mandate of taming inflation even harder. However, the market focus is turning a blind eye to this and instead focusing on Wage Growth. You see, wage growth slowed and last month’s HOT number was also revised downward, which the “market” believes gives the Fed cause to pivot.

Fed Chairman Powell has made it very clear that until inflation is at 2% (currently 7%) and unemployment hits 5%, they will not pause or pivot regardless of what higher rates do to the markets or the economy.

Bottom Line: I believe today’s drop in rates is opportunity to lock!

Here are lockable rates as of 8:30am:















Keith Murphy Branch Manager – Essex Mortgage NMLS #330827

Direct: 714-309-1140


About the Author

Tim Morissette, also known in the community as Mr. Foothill Ranch, offers over 46 years of real estate experience which has given him an established reputation and unmatched market knowledge. He is joined by his wife, Michele and sons Matt and Jeff, as they continue to offer personal service with an emphasis on achieving his clients’ real estate goals.  This unique combination of traits has led to his proven track record of referral and repeat business. This can be witnessed by the trust of homeowners in Foothill Ranch where he has sold twice as many homes and represented three times more buyers than the next-leading real estate agent for the last 26 years.

As residents of Foothill Ranch since 1994, Tim and Michele are actively involved in the community by fundraising for Foothill Ranch Library, Make-a-Wish Foundation, Cancer Society, Homes for Habitat, Relay for Life, South County Outreach, and the local church and schools. Tim enjoys sponsoring community-wide garage sales, paper shredding and e-waste recycling event, an Easter egg hunt, & a Meet Santa Event.

Tim and Michele are dedicated to their family of four sons, daughter-in-laws, and grandchildren. As a family, they enjoy many outdoor activities which include camping, spearfishing, mountain climbing and exploring the miles of hiking and equestrian trails in Foothill Ranch and the Whiting Ranch Wilderness Park. Tim and his sons are also avid snowboarders and enjoy mountain biking and lobster diving. Family is a top priority in the Morissette household. They look forward to helping more families achieve their dreams of homeownership.