OC Housing Report

Rising Rates Vs. No Inventory

January 26, 2022

There are two opposing economic forces impacting thehousing market right now, rising mortgage rates and a recordlow supply of homes available to purchase.

Opposing Forces

There simply are not enough homes available for buyers and rising rates have not yet had an impact on the insanely hot housing market.

 

There is an impact to rising rates. The rise from 3.05% to 3.56% is an additional $252 per month for a $900,000 mortgage, or $3,027 per year. However, with such a limited supply of available homes the impact is not being felt on the street. Today’s rate may be the highest since the start of the pandemic, but it is still a really great rate. The extra $252 per month is more of a “market adjustment fee” for housing that is easily absorbed due to the extremely limited number of homes available. Homes are still flying off the market as fast as they are coming on. Throngs of buyers are waiting in lines for the opportunity to see a home that is placed on the market. Multiple offers are the norm. After receiving 10, 20, or 30 offers on a home, the sellers are calling all the shots, sales prices exceed their asking prices, and home values continue to rapidly rise.

Why has the rise in rates not yet affected the housing market? The answer is simple: rates have not climbed high enough to materially slow demand. Mortgage rates climbed considerably in both 2013 and 2018, which caused a shift in the market. Demand cooled, the inventory increased, market times grew, and the market slowed from a Hot Seller’s Market to a much more balanced market. In 2013, rates rose from 3.34% to 4.57%, and in 2018 they rose from 3.99% to 4.94%. The recent runup in rates is much smaller. If they continue to climb, then the market could cool. But, for now, Wall Street and investors have digested future Federal Reserve moves and they most likely will not rise much more from here. Rates would need to climb to 4% or higher to slow housing. At 4%, the difference in payment for that same $900,000 mortgage example would be $478 more per month, or $5,739 per year. At 4.25%, it would be $608 per month, or $7,299 per year.

The recent four week rise in mortgage rates had no real impact on the current pace of housing. It will be important to watch how mortgage rates unfold in the weeks and months to come. Until rates rise substantially from here, it is business as usual, an insanely hot housing market in Orange County.

About the Author

Tim Morissette, also known in the community as Mr. Foothill Ranch, offers over 43 years of real estate experience which has given him an established reputation and unmatched market knowledge. He is joined by his wife, Michele and son Matt, as they continue to offer personal service with an emphasis on achieving his clients’ real estate goals.  This unique combination of traits has led to his proven track record of referral and repeat business. This can be witnessed by the trust of homeowners in Foothill Ranch where he has sold twice as many homes and represented three times more buyers than the next-leading real estate agent for the last 23 years.

As residents of Foothill Ranch since 1994, Tim and Michele are actively involved in the community by fundraising for Foothill Ranch Library, Make-a-Wish Foundation, Cancer Society, Homes for Habitat, Relay for Life, South County Outreach, and the local church and schools. Tim enjoys sponsoring community-wide garage sales, as well as sponsors Paper Shredding and E-Waste Recycling events twice a year.

Tim and Michele are dedicated to their family of four sons, daughter-in-laws, and grandchildren. As a family, they enjoy many outdoor activities which include camping, spearfishing, mountain climbing and exploring the miles of hiking and equestrian trails in Foothill Ranch and the Whiting Ranch Wilderness Park. Tim and his sons are also avid snowboarders and enjoy mountain biking and lobster diving. Family is a top priority in the Morissette household. They look forward to helping more families achieve their dreams of homeownership.