OC Housing Report

Hype Versus Data

From YouTube to TikTok to the backyard barbecue, there are plenty of narratives regarding the pending doom for housing that the underlying data does not support.

The best advice in hearing all the talk swirling around the belief that a real estate crash lurks around the corner is to ignore the noise and stick to the facts.

Many YouTube channels, TikTok, and Instagram accounts are devoted to the housing crash narrative. Either housing is crashing, or it is about to. They are convinced that the market will implode, and values will plunge similar to or worse than the Great Recession. The videos are persuasive in tone but lack the complete picture, ignoring the actual underlying facts. Many of these prognosticators lack the economic credentials and have been calling for a housing collapse for years, steering hundreds of thousands of unsuspecting viewers in the wrong direction, preying on everyone who has been unable to purchase over the years and has been rooting for housing’s demise so that they can finally capture a piece of the American Dream.

Home values rocketed higher from May 2020, right after the initial COVID lockdown, through May 2022. Rates plunged, reaching 17 record lows from March 2020 through January 2021, and remained low through March of last year. As rates climbed, the housing market slowed. After starting 2022 at 3.25%, they eclipsed 5% in May, 6% in September, and 7% in October. In the second half of the year, the housing crash crowd grew louder and louder as affordability eroded and home values declined. Is a housing downturn around the corner? Will home values plunge? The answer is straightforward in looking at the facts, not anytime soon. Ignore all the hype and rely on data.

FACT – The active inventory in Orange County is at its lowest level in May since tracking began in 2004. Housing is experiencing a crisis, a catastrophically low level of available homes. During the Great Recession, a glut of homes was on the market. Today, the market suffers from the opposite condition: a minimal supply. For housing to tip in the buyer’s direction, the inventory needs to rise at the very least to pre-pandemic levels. The 5-year average peak from 2015 to 2019 was 7,058 homes. There are only 2,139 homes available today. Last year, the inventory grew substantially from April through August, peaking at 4,069 homes. It stopped climbing due to a lack of sellers coming on the market. The inventory is not poised to rise anywhere near 7,000 homes anytime soon.












Excerpt taken from an article by Steven Thomas.

About the Author

Tim Morissette, also known in the community as Mr. Foothill Ranch, offers over 46 years of real estate experience which has given him an established reputation and unmatched market knowledge. He is joined by his wife, Michele and sons Matt and Jeff, as they continue to offer personal service with an emphasis on achieving his clients’ real estate goals.  This unique combination of traits has led to his proven track record of referral and repeat business. This can be witnessed by the trust of homeowners in Foothill Ranch where he has sold twice as many homes and represented three times more buyers than the next-leading real estate agent for the last 26 years.

As residents of Foothill Ranch since 1994, Tim and Michele are actively involved in the community by fundraising for Foothill Ranch Library, Make-a-Wish Foundation, Cancer Society, Homes for Habitat, Relay for Life, South County Outreach, and the local church and schools. Tim enjoys sponsoring community-wide garage sales, paper shredding and e-waste recycling event, an Easter egg hunt, & a Meet Santa Event.

Tim and Michele are dedicated to their family of four sons, daughter-in-laws, and grandchildren. As a family, they enjoy many outdoor activities which include camping, spearfishing, mountain climbing and exploring the miles of hiking and equestrian trails in Foothill Ranch and the Whiting Ranch Wilderness Park. Tim and his sons are also avid snowboarders and enjoy mountain biking and lobster diving. Family is a top priority in the Morissette household. They look forward to helping more families achieve their dreams of homeownership.