When will it end?
The active listing inventory shed 178 homes in the past couple of weeks, down 9%, and now sits at 1,864 homes, the lowest level since tracking began in 2004. That’s a huge drop and has
plunged the inventory to uncharted territories with a record low number of homes to start November. Last year at this time it reached a record low level for a start to November at 3,944 homes, 111% more than today, more than double, or an extra 2,080 homes available to purchase. There are only a few more weeks until housing transitions to the Holiday Market, from the week prior to Thanksgiving through the first couple of weeks of the New Year. Fewer homes will enter the fray and many unsuccessful sellers will throw in the towel. It is hard to believe, but 43% of the inventory has been on the market for over 30-days, the most likely sellers to pull their homes off the market during the holidays and wait until next year to try again. Expect the inventory to continue to drop in the next couple of weeks before plunging to its lowest levels of the year upon celebrating ringing in 2022.
The 3-year average from 2017 to 2019 (intentionally omitting 2020 due to COVID skewing the data) is 6,010, an extra 4,146 homes, or 222% more, triple compared to today. There were a lot more choices back then. The inventory typically drops 5% at this time of the year, not quite as high at the 9% drop realized in the past couple of weeks.