A 2026 Forecast
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!! Now, what does that mean for Orange County real estate?
First, let us look back at what happened in 2025 in terms of inventory, demand, luxury properties, and the Expected Market Time.
The inventory climbed to its highest level since 2019 and experienced its first normal summer peak in years. The year started with an active inventory of 2,343 homes, the third-lowest level at the start of a year since tracking began in 2004, behind only 2022 and 2023. The average start before the pandemic (2017 to 2019) was 4,500 homes, a considerable 92% higher. The limited supply has defined the Orange County housing market for years now. Yet in 2025, the number of available homes blossomed, growing by 116% to an end-of-July peak of 5,071 homes, its highest peak since 2019’s 7,601 homes. The annual peak typically occurs between July and August, but over the past couple of years, it has been delayed due to higher rates in the fall.
From July until the year’s end, the number of available homes dropped by 38% to 3,159. The end of 2025 was 29% below the 3-year average end-of-December (2017 to 2019) of 4,479. The beginning of 2026 will be the highest start since 2020, with about 3,000 available homes to purchase.

Excerpt taken from an article by Steven Thomas.


