The Buyer’s Market Gains Momentum

The latest Orange County housing data shows a market continuing to shift toward buyers as mortgage rates rise, demand weakens, and Expected Market Time increases. While today’s market is slower, the data does not support the idea of an imminent housing crash like the Great Recession. Limited inventory, tight lending standards, and substantial homeowner equity continue to separate today’s market from 2008.

📊 Inventory Remains Limited

Orange County’s active listing inventory increased by 13 homes over the past two weeks, bringing the total to 4,952 homes, essentially unchanged. Inventory is remaining higher than it typically does during the Autumn Market because rising mortgage rates have weakened demand, causing more unsuccessful sellers to remain on the market.

Current inventory is 8% higher than last year’s 4,576 homes but remains 29% below the 2017–2019 pre-COVID average of 6,400 homes. Through August, 21,374 homes had come onto the market, which is 27% fewer than the pre-COVID average.

📊 Buyer Demand Falls Sharply

Buyer demand fell from 1,468 to 1,349 pending sales over the past two weeks, a decline of 119 sales, or 8%. This is the largest drop in demand so far this year and the lowest September demand reading in Orange County since 2007.

Demand is also 19% below last year's 1,609 pending sales and 68% below the 2017–2019 pre-COVID average of 2,262 pending sales.

The report points to rising mortgage rates as a major factor. Rates increased from approximately 6% in February to 7.5%, creating additional affordability pressure and contributing to the recent slowdown in buyer activity.

📊 How Long Are Homes Taking to Sell?

With inventory essentially unchanged and demand falling significantly, Orange County’s Expected Market Time increased from 101 to 110 days over the past two weeks. That compares with 85 days last year and a pre-COVID average of 86 days.

The difference between attached and detached properties remains significant. Condos and townhomes are at 128 days, compared with 87 days last year, while detached homes are at 99 days, compared with 84 days last year.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

For buyers, the slower market can provide more time and negotiating opportunity. Higher mortgage rates have reduced competition, while longer market times give buyers more properties and more time to evaluate their options.

At the same time, buyers should not assume that every home is overpriced or that a major price collapse is coming. Well-priced, desirable homes can still attract strong interest.

For Sellers:

For sellers, accurate pricing, strong presentation and effective marketing are more important as demand slows and homes remain on the market longer. Sellers are competing for a smaller pool of active buyers, making it especially important to stand out from competing properties.

The Bottom Line

Orange County’s housing market is continuing to shift toward buyers as mortgage rates rise, buyer demand falls, and homes take longer to sell.

However, the current market is very different from the conditions that led to the Great Recession. Inventory remains far below the levels seen in 2006–2007, lending standards are much tighter, and homeowners have substantially more equity.

Thinking about buying or selling?

Countywide statistics are helpful, but your neighborhood, property type, price range and competition can tell a very different story. If you're considering a move, we'd be happy to help you understand what today's market means for your specific situation.

Source: Steven Thomas, Orange County Housing Report: Then and Now – 2008 vs. Today, September 28, 2026.