The Buyer’s Playbook: Understanding Today’s Orange County Market

The latest Orange County Housing Report, dated September 14, 2026, describes a market that is leaning toward buyers as mortgage rates rise, demand slows, and inventory remains elevated compared with recent years. However, the report emphasizes that buyers should not assume every home will sell below asking price.

📊 Inventory Continues to Decline

Orange County’s active listing inventory decreased by 43 homes over the past two weeks, bringing the total to 4,939 homes, a 1% decline. Inventory appears to have peaked about a month ago at 5,054 homes as the market moves into its typical Autumn Market, when fewer homes come to market and some unsuccessful sellers remove their listings.

Current inventory is 4% higher than last year’s 4,758 homes but remains 32% below the 2017–2019 pre-COVID average of 6,520 homes. Through August, 21,374 homes had come onto the market, which is 27% fewer than the pre-COVID average.

📊 Buyer Demand Falls Slightly

Buyer demand fell from 1,528 to 1,468 pending sales over the past two weeks, a decline of 60 sales, or 4%. Demand is also 8% below last year's 1,591 pending sales and 61% below the 2017–2019 pre-COVID average of 2,363 pending sales.

The report notes that mortgage rates have risen from approximately 6% in February to 7.17%, contributing to the recent slowdown in buyer demand.

📊 How Long Are Homes Taking to Sell?

With demand falling faster than supply, Orange County’s Expected Market Time increased from 98 to 101 days over the past two weeks. That compares with 90 days last year and a pre-COVID average of 84 days.

The difference between attached and detached properties remains significant. Condos and townhomes are at 115 days, compared with 93 days last year, while detached homes are at 92 days, compared with 88 days last year.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

For buyers, the current market can provide more opportunity to negotiate, but the report shows that well-maintained, upgraded, turnkey homes that are realistically priced can still sell quickly and even above asking price. In August, 30% of closed sales sold above the asking price, while 18% sold at the last list price.

For Sellers:

For sellers, accurate pricing and strong presentation remain important as buyers have more choices and the overall pace of the market slows.

The Bottom Line

Orange County’s housing market is continuing to shift toward buyers as mortgage rates rise, buyer demand slows, and homes take longer to sell. At the same time, inventory remains well below historical pre-COVID levels, and the market is entering its typical seasonal decline in available listings.

Thinking about buying or selling?

Countywide statistics are helpful, but your neighborhood, property type, price range and competition can tell a very different story. If you're considering a move, we'd be happy to help you understand what today's market means for your specific situation. 

Source: Steven Thomas, Orange County Housing Report: The Buyer’s Playbook, September 14, 2026.